Release time：2025-01-07
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The strongest sales prospects in January are for electromechanical/connector products.
The ECST survey of supply chain participants in December 2024 found that concerns about sales in December have eased compared to the outlook for November. The November survey predicts an overall index score of 94.4, which is the lowest level since December 2023. The actual results of the December survey showed that people's concerns have eased, with an actual score of 98.4, a significant decrease from November but on par with previous months. Passive components were the only category in December to score over 100, with a score of 101.0. The encouraging news comes from the outlook for January 2025, which predicts a jump of 16.8 points and a total score of 115.2.
The outlook for January 2025 is consistent with the optimistic view of sales improvement in the first quarter of 2025 in the quarterly ECST survey conducted in November. From the historical pattern of ECST score changes from December to January, there was a significant increase in January after the usually slow December. In the past five years, the average growth rate from December to January was 14.5%. The latest survey in December shows that the outlook for January is consistent with the situation in the past five years. However, this kind of jumping is not always guaranteed. The increase in January 2022 was only 2.2 percentage points. Despite a slow start to 2022, the overall growth of the electronic components industry for the year is over 20%. This will indicate that although the survey is a reasonable indicator of recent sales patterns, it cannot reliably predict long-term results.
The strongest sales prospects in January are for electromechanical/connector products, with an expected score of 125.7 points, a significant increase of 27.9 points from December. The outlook index for semiconductor products in January was 110.3 points, only recovering to the level of November 2024, while in December it plummeted to 96.6 points. The passive component index is predicted to be 109.6 in January based on December.
Comparing the survey results of three groups of respondents, distributors expressed the most optimistic attitude, while manufacturer representatives were the most pessimistic. Manufacturers usually match the overall average results of the survey. The actual results of terminal market confidence in December were significantly higher than the forecast of the November survey. The index for December was 101.6, 13.8 points higher than expected.
The outlook for the terminal market in January is even brighter, with an overall forecast of 125.0. The aviation electronics/military/space and industrial electronics markets are leading, with predicted scores of 145.8 and 135.6 in January, respectively. Except for one market, all other markets are expected to exceed 100 in January. Only the consumer electronics market was predicted to be below 97.8 in January. Ironically, starting with the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January, the early atmosphere was quite positive. In addition, in the latest survey, delivery time continues to be mainly based on stable expectations.
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